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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still